Back to life, back to reality…

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Sorry folks, my life has been taking a very fast curve during these last months and I am afraid I went a bit off road.

First by the end of January I had a health scare. That’s when I learned that cancer is just a bad word, not a sentence. Went through one of these operations that are supposed to last 45 min and leave you with a nifty scar on your belly button but ended up most day in theatre and woke up with three scars that are definitely stopping me from wearing a bikini in public for the rest of my life. It took me some time to recover and half a stone.

The scars of course are not only physical. When you’re being told that there is a nice tumour exploding your ovary and that’s just the beginning of it, one will be - I hope- excused from walking down the street in a cold January afternoon wondering what is going to happen next and just wanting to hold her kids and husband in her arms. I wasn’t inshock, I wasn’t scared, I wasn’t numb but I felt so awfully sorry for my family, with an intense feeling of guilt because my body was letting us all down.

The harsh part is breaking the news and getting organized. The children were sent to school, friends and family in order for me to recover quietly at home. Hubby was at work- in a new place- and the heating had to be changed just then. It took me three months to warm up again. I was taking things as they came, reading my University course - by then I had started my third course and getting ready for my exams on the two first ones-, catching up with petty tasks that I could undertake from my bed and watching enough dvds to my heart content. But most of all, I slept.

Once up and running again- not too much time to think it all over- I went straight into my exams. Six stressful weeks followed by the end of which I had to withdraw from my third course as I had the feeling I was totally missing the point. ( Not the opinion of my tutor or the University administration as I was one the best students of my class). But I came to realise that in order to study economics, I had to understand maths and models and I couldn’t accept just being ” good enough”. So I enrolled straight away on a compulsory course for a degree in finance about developing effective performance at work and another about maths. Of course I thought I would collapse, especially as we were having our windows replaced at the same time- lots of dust, of mess and a house tthat is upside down and noisy.

But you know what- I’m still standing. The house is in the process of being springcleaned, I am back to work and I am at the top of my class with my first assessment. It is a challenging time but it forces me out of my comfort zone. I trust I’m not the only one who has to take a leap of faith towards what the future will bring- so I am ready for all the first steps I will have to take.

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“The war on democracy” by John Pilger

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Warning: this is a great documentary, one of the best I have seen in a long time. It is so well done that once I finished it I considered committing suicide. Pilger is a great story teller and he shows you with accuracy how you live in a bubble and you don’t know it.

In the name of ” national security” the USA have for decades intervened in countries that were seen as dangerous just because they were applying democracy ( should I say real democracy?) and were rejecting the american model. Although Pilger sometimes skim a few facts - such as Chavez ambiguous power- he certainly knows his History and has the guts to show you what you were too blind to see.

Great great documentary. It is a must. I can’t sleep now.

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Another depression coming? Or a lengthy recession?

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Nobody wants to hear that we are heading for a depression. It conjures images of famine, tramps, extreme poverty, hyperinflation- a nightmare. The scars are numerous and although there are not many people alive today who have gone through the last Great Depression, everybody knows that this is not something that you want to be in.

I have been asked a few days ago what the solutions to our current situation are. The truth is- I don’t know . And before you start throwing tomatoes at me, let me add this: anybody who tells you he/ she knows is probably a crystal ball reader, or in other terms, a liar. Why? Because we have never been in such a situation before and with every new day, a new ” solution” is being thrown in our faces by our governements. As long as there is no pause in the process, there is no way to stop and figure it all out.

Of course there are some possibilities. The first one is that we are entering an era of deflation. ( That’s not good. We ” need” a minimum of inflation to have the markets growing and entrerpises expanding). But with all the money printing by the Feds, the ghost of hyperinflation is lingering in the background- and that’s not good either. It when your savings or your salary is not worth buying a peanut anymore. I am not an expert on currencies but the volatility of these markets are not helping either. And let’s not talk about the details of productivity, interest rates kept low, inexistant savings and more borrowing ( we have now gone full circle- more of the same is not going to make it go away).

By not allowing the banks to fail Mr Paulson and Mr Bernanke have created a monster. We have been told by our governants that they couldn’t let the situation follow its course. If we had, it would have been worse and immediate action was required to prevent a worse future. Of course it doesn’t make sense. By protecting the banks that were meant to fail, they put tremendous pressure on the banks that hadn’t committed the same mistakes. Even worse they are saving companies that do not deserve it (  great example to set) and will probably not learn their lessons ( follow my lead, what happened to Enron? Or LTCM…deja vu someone…?)

Now if anybody thinks that this is going to work…Well, think again. Did it change the situation? Did it allow the markets to turn? People to keep their jobs? Retails to sell their good? Banks to get their loans and mortgages repaid? What good did it do exactly?

You can’t stop a running train. It is even worse with a wild beast. It usually kills some before it gets killed.

So here it goes. We should hit the wall and then we will get up. Governements are trying to stop this but it looks like they are only creating a delay. It will probably happen anyway. But why did they intervene really?

Who is happy to see those banks stand up? People who have their savings in them, that’s right. But if we have our life savings being swallowed up, most of us have to keep doing their day jobs and struggle some more. If the very wealthy ( the 2% who owns the 80%) go into the wall, what will we have? Interesting idea, don’t you think?

The Madoff affair gave a big clue to this. The SEC didn’t respond to the party poopers whistle blowing. Bloomberg’s articles explain very well the why and the because of this. Who were the ones who had every interest not to know and keep the party going? It is the old history of greed. But what is sad is that the ones who should be punished end up being rewarded.

To end this rant, I would like to point out one thing. So far most depressions have ended up in a war. It created a solution to all the problems ( alledgedly). We think ourselves too civilized to take the arms again but I would suggest that you think twice about this before dismissing the idea. Look at Israel/Palestine, Russia/Ukraine, China/Japan or even USA/ South America. How quickly can a situation escalate?  Of course I am pessimistic here, am I not?

But I can do worse. If there was to be a war…Can we afford it? I am not talking about weapons and money here, I am talking about potentially erasing a generation or two of an indispensable workforce in the Western world. A majority of our population is getting older and we will need young people- to pay for the retirement pensions and to answer the needs of the elderly. If we were to damage our human assets more, what could happen?

Of course we are civilized. Of course. Something will turn up alright in the end and we will win the lottery. Good night and good luck.

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In and out of YouTube

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I wanted to help my best friend practice some English. So I had this wonderful idea to set up an account on YouTube videos and do every day- or as often as I could- a little video where I would pick up a subject for the day. It had to be simple, clear, concise in order for my friend to understand what I was talking about ( she says her English skills are a bit limited).

So I did a little video on the economical situation we are in. Fairly basic: I was just explaining the different root causes of our present recession. The reasons given were: bankers lending money to the wrong people; governements encouraging people to spend; central banks that kept interests low; housing market seen as a pension investment; developping countries expanding- and so on. Then I said that I would come to the eventual solutions in another video.

The feedback was instant. Some guy told me that although I was cute, I had no idea what I was talking about; we are in a depression he said and I should listen to Peter Schiff to learn my economics theories. I had “obviously no idea about the causes link”.  The rant was a tad longer than this, but if I was mildly amused by the reaction, I was definitely shocked by the violence of the retort and the inexactitude of the comments.

You see, I am a woman. In my video I tried to stay neutral and not give away what my thoughts were on the current situation. Although I believe we are seriously on the way to a depression- and a big one- I cannot bring myself to say so for two reasons: one is that a depression is officially a ” prolonged” recession, and a recession has to last on average 13 months. As the US have officially announced that this recession had started in december 2007, I don’t feel authorized to revoke their expertise to decide that we are now in a depression. And  two, actually I will not even say so in February- after the 13 months deadline- as it would simply mean that this recession is a tad longer than average, but not prolonged as yet. For that I would probably wait for a 16 months deadline- the length of the last long recession we had. Keep in mind please that the Great depression ( 1929-1933) lasted officially 4 years.

It doesn’t mean in any way that I believe we are not entering full blast in a depression. I actually do. But I can’t say we are in one yet- because the term would be incorrect.

Funnily enough Peter Schiff says the same…My commentator must have been asleep when Mr Schiff says the word ” recession” in his interviews. Or he’s throwing tomatoes at his tv/computer screen every time he says it, I don’t know. And I have to add that if I agree with Mr Schiff on a lot of his analysis, some of his views are changing quite fast and if you carefully listen to some comments made in the past, some of his views turned out to be wrong  ( the fall of the $ is still expected). It doesn’t mean he’s incompetent, but it is very difficult to predict the future and to be right ALL OF THE TIME. Look at Nouriel Roubini. As Mr Schiff, he did spot the credit crunch crisis way before a lot of people. But now his views are seen as wrong ( he’s in favour of the bailouts and thinks it’s the way to go). Gurus usually last as long as their analysis are seen as right. Then another one takes the throne.

As for the causes, remember, I was trying to be basic and concise. Of course I can go into deep details, such as the reasons why banks started lending to people who couldn’t afford a mortgage in the first place. Think Bill Clinton, Alan Greenspan, threats to the banks that wanted to refuse to play the game- and we can start digging from there. In my comments I was explaining how we were all to blame in the end as I believe it is time for everyone to take responsability. Blaming others is not going to change the future now but if we all take responsability, collectively, we can see a bigger picture appearing and try to decide where we stand and what we are going to do about it.

So…I realise how Youtube can be a fantastic tool for publicity and marketing - which I suspected already- but also what kind of double-edged sword it can be. It seems that most people watch/ listen to it distractively and the result is that they post comments that are inaccurate or stupid. My own experience was not too bad, but I wanted to see by myself how it worked. So I picked up a lot of videos about economics that I watched carefully- and then I read the comments. Most of them were insulting and started with: you don’t know what you’re talking about…, go and watch..( put a guru’s name here) and learn real economics. It was pathetic. The good comments- the ones that had a point and made sense- were usually explaining simply why they disagreed. They didn’t have the word ” moron” in them. But these were not the majority.

I took my video down. I had a few reasons to do so, but at the bottom of them was lingering feeling that  don’t want to be the butt of comments that were so depreciative. You see, telling me that I am cute when I’m talking work, that really killed me.

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The learning mature student experience

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…is tough, guys. I have to structure my reports. My tutor has explained to me that my style is conversational- which is lovely but doesn’t appear professional. I get the point and I’m working on it. But it is doing my head in sometimes.

My main problem to be honest is that the matter ( introduction to business studies) doesn’t interest me that much. Learning how a business functions and is structured could always be useful I guess, but subjects such as HRM ( Human resource management) sort of anaesthetises my brain. Don’t get me wrong- I dig the concepts. Job design, development and training methods, Theory X and Theory Y…I get the points. But when I have to draw a report about this kind of subjects I go brain dead ( The anaesthetic didn’t work too well I’m afraid).

So I am suddenly struggling with words. What is important here? What isn’t?

My favourite subject - which is economics- doesn’t give me this type of problems whatsoever. I enjoy the whole proccess- reading, learning, doing exercises, reflecting, even applying on a daily basis. Ok let’s be honest again- I bloody love the subject. And tryin go from the theory to reality just makes do leaps and bonds. It’s fascinating to see how economics apply to about anything. But businesses…forget it.

My fellow students seem as passionate as I am. I’ve been trying to organize a reunion to explore ideas and exchange knowledge but to no avail. On 27 people two seemed vaguely interested. None have asked me for a date. I gave up.

What I found though curious is how much people keep using their own experience at every level on any subject. Whatever we study the same topic comes back to haunt the forum: it’s me time and what I’ve been through- good or bad. I try to relate and occasionally post my own two pence of experience in the workfield- but what I see really is that ” the big picture” is almost always lost. Amazon, Tesco and other big companies play the role of the baddies. Their policies are close to slavery procedures. People talk about their rights a lot. one of them talk about their duties, and even less what the economical requirements of our time do to the business world in general. I may be out of subject here, but I am amazed to see that no one put themselves in a big company shoes. HRM is the holy Grail of working pleasure. Really? Does this reflect reality? Or does it only for a small part of the world population?

But this kind of blindness or blissful ignorance is socially acceptable it seems. I was talking to a banker last week- in Switzerland- and I was underlining that the world population that lives in famine has now reached the billion. That’s not exactly good news, is it, to know that one sixth of the population of earth is dying of hunger? Is anybody thinking about a war here? I was told that this was not new. After all, inequalities had always and will always exist. Let’s move on to another subject.

But I don’t take it as lightly as that. Add the statistics. Population without food on the increase. Fertilizers prices rising. Small farmers ( 80% of the farming world) not planting as much food as they used to. More people without their basic needs being fulfill. What is going to happen?

It is a far far away problem. It almost seems that it is actually taking place on the moon- or even further. Right now what our Wester world is concern about is that instead of buying 10 gifts for each kids in a household, their parents will only buy one or two. Aw, how sweet. That hurts indeed.

We live now in a world where it is time to set our priorities right. Governements are bailing out companies that creating their own misery, rewarding them for their greediness and stupidity. The ones who didn’t commit those offences are being punished by watching dishonest/ unproductive concurrents getting their beggars money when themselves have to just keep going in the current environment- with no support whatsoever. People who can’t repay their loans are encouraged to take another one. If they can’t pay the first one, how can any governement imagine they could pay the last one? Money is being thrown out of the windows- but the results seem only to be delayed. How many individuals debts could have been erased if that money had simply ben given to them? The last time I heard a number, I was told that half of the world individual debts could have been erased. I don’t know how to check these numbers at the moment- but even if it were a quarter only, wouldn’t it have been a better solution?

I’m afraid I’m getting carried away again. That’s why I went back to University- to learn to structure my thoughts, to expand my knowledge and ultimately, hopefully, to do something about this chaotic mess. What I’ve learned so far is that I still have a lot to learn a lot to explore and that overcoming smaller minds issues will be challenging.

Merry Xmas to you all.

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“Yes man” with Jim Carrey

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I never was a fan of Jim Carrey at his beginnings. Ace Ventura was boring me to death. But when Carrey started playing things such as ” Truman show” or “The number 23″, I became interested. Because the guy has talent- a lot of it- if given the chance. “Yes man” was a film I really was longing to go and see for the plot and for the main actor.

Amazingly I was happy throughout the movie. Carrey’s performance was great and believable. Getting older suits him wonderfully. The guy is becoming seriously sexy. George Clooney- you’re not my type. The plot was good. A guy who’s trying to stay on the safe side ( aka turning into a zombie) ends up in a seminar where he’s being questioned about his beliefs and challenged to seize opportunities. Being on the superstitious side, he follows the plan- with hilarious consequences. But there is something more skin deep than that. The opportunities - although a bit stretched on the reality side- prove that every challenge can be worth taking in life.  Carrey discovers that life is worth living and good things ensue.

That is truly an optmistic movie. It doesn’t make you feel stupid and it shows that you can have a life outside the box. The money issue that we are spammed with at the moment is put back in its right perspective.

Carrey, you made my day. All my family liked it. I will buy the dvd and plague friends and family to go and see it.

It is not a masterpiece. But it is the very best movie  have seen this year.

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” The tale of Despereaux”

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Kids movie. A mouse saves the day in a kingdom where soup was popular. A rat deviates the course of things and humans, rats and mice end up being unhappy. Of course it takes a David to put things right and show his world that you should never underestimates someone smaller than you.

My girls ( aged now 6 and soon 5) loved it. It had enough action and events to keep me awake. As it wasn’t a Disney movie the graphics were refreshing and quite elegant. The story is good enough.

For small children though.

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“Quantum of solace” with Daniel Craig

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Let’s not beat around the bush, I didn’t like it. Bond appears to be more and more on the cold blood killer than the ingenious gentleman who handles shooting as he would casually play chess. The cation is of course impressive- one of the qualities of the movie- and Craig is a good action hero. The girls though….OK, I’m heterosexual, so maybe I’m biased - but both Bond girls were utterly naive and boring. Dame Judi Dench and Money Penny are sexier- thank God for them.

I wish something was done about those Bonds. Craig is good in action but the scenariis- please, please, please…Let’s not destroy a legend. I want the gentleman Bond, not the common thug.

We’ll see what the next one has in store…

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“Madagascar Escape 2 Africa”

movies

I was not keen on the first Madagascar, which I saw with my kids and thankfully never had to watch again. So I went to this one dragging my feet- just a little bit. My beloved husband fell asleep after 10 min but we were all to mesmerized to notice. We didn’t even noticed when he woke up.

The music of the fim is energetic and enthusiastic - as the movie is, really. THe plot still fails to please me and there was some reminiscence of the Lion King that I found a tad insulting- we could have seen better than a remake of that. But…The penguins are extraordinarily funny ( the guy(s) who write their part must be high on something but it is sooo good) and the rest of the cast have their funny moments. All in all it was enjoyable.

Luckily I won’t have to watch it again, but if I have to, it will be alright. But just once.

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“A bunch of amateurs” with Burt Reynolds

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The plot is extermely simple. An almost has-been Hollywood movie star decides to accept an offer to play Shakespeare’s King Lear in England in the hope it will revive his career and put some distance between his unhappy aspiring actress of a daughter.

Now it’s easy to guess- things don’t go according to plan. Reynolds ends up in a small village in Devon and has to deal with a team of amateurs. Nobody’s happy. But life is made of challenges and all ends well.

Reynolds face-lift is a disaster and it’s beyond me why actors and actresses do cosmetic surgery when their bread is earned thanks to their expression and their acting. Anyway. The man has some experience under his belt and it shows.  The bunch of amateurs have their charms but the truth is that this film is sadly missing the point. It should attract English viewers as it is a UK comedy. But it just shows what everybody over here knows already about small villages and  the lovely country and its people. It should attract US viewers but showing them how their well known habits are challenged overseas. By it’s all too boring to really bother.

It was 2 h of my life that I can’t have back. It was simple- but I’m afraid it was just that.

Sorry Burt.

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